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TMO Overview - Obesity

Obesity is a complex, multifactorial chronic disease that develops from an interaction of genotype and environment. Our understanding of how and why obesity develops is incomplete, but involves the integration of social, behavioral, cultural, physiological, metabolic and genetic factors. Currently, obesity represents an alluring and untapped commercial opportunity. AVOS projects that the prevalent population in the U.S. will grow from 81.3 million in 2008 to 93.2 million in 2013; however, because of the lack of truly innovative product launches expected during this timeframe, AVOS predicts that only 42% of the diagnosed population will be treated between 2008 and 2013 - a number that will be further diminished by poor compliance rates for obesity medications. AVOS projections show the U.S. Obesity market growing from current sales of $303 million in 2008 (carried largely by Phentermine, Xenical, and Merida) to $1.75 billion in 2013, carried by next-generation cannibinoid receptors and Cetilistat, a promising second-generation lipase inhibitor from Alizyme.

AVOS Life Sciences' TMO Obesity addresses each key aspect of a rigorous, disease-based market analysis:

Market Size & Expected Growth	In-depth epidemiological analysis and modeling Detailed review of current and projected treatment landscape at a class level
Treatment Cascade	Consideration of the treatment algorithms for primary indication Impact of manipulating treatment cascade through promotional and other initiatives
Drug Class Characteristics	Fundamentals: safety, efficacy, side effects, onset of action, duration, etc. Developer strengths and weaknesses (technology, marketing, sales, etc.)
Competitive Landscape	Comprehensive competitve pipeline overview at a drug level In-depth review of all major competing treatment mechanisms and drug classes
Pricing & Reimbursement Landscape	Where appropriate, price elaticity calculations based on payer and provider interviews Evaluation of reimbursement landscape for indication and similar projects
Class Position Effects	Detailed research and analysis for first-in-class products Scenario analysis of entrants into markets with existing products
Projected Market Share Shifts	Sophisticated uptake models (historical view, firm and product attributes) Predictions for shifts resulting from the use of several marketing levers

Key findings in AVOS's TMO Obesity report include:

• Reimbursement is a critical ingredient to robust Rx product growth in the obesity market, however coverage is not expected in the forecast period: To date, payors have elected not to grant widespread reimbursement for anti-obesity products. Despite being seen as a medical condition, payer priorities have focused upon two costly comorbidities...
• A limited number of new scientific approaches are not anticipated to change the structural market feature of high patient "failure" relative to trial: Notable shaping features of the obesity market are expected to continue through 2013. The first structural feature of this market is linked to the affected patient population...
• Two business models appear to be viable in this market although with vastly different implications for pharma: Set up by the coverage and reimbursement realities of the market, these non-exclusive positioning options would appear viable - 1) medical or clinical route with strategy/clinical development approach to achieve labeling in other reimbursed disease states and 2) a consumer product marketing positioning...
• Patient support programs are the key to long term value creation for anti-obesity agents: The nature of the patients and patient physician interface implies that patient support approach is a critical element to the marketing of the product...
• OTC competitive risk to ethical pharmaceuticals market expected to be limited: Launch of Alli in June 2007 represents a first of its kind event in this market, though the long term impact on the Rx market is limited by two key reasons...

AVOS's TMO Obesity report is a must-read for R&D and commercial decision makers who need to understand the market fundamentals underlying this substantial therapeutic opportunity.