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TMO Overview - Diabetes

Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by the inability of the body to produce or respond to insulin. Causes of diabetes vary depending upon whether a patient has type 1 or type 2 diabetes.

There is no known way to prevent type 1 diabetes as the factors triggering its onset are not well understood. By contrast, numerous risk factors for type 2 diabetes have been identified, including age, race, obesity, and many others. These risk factors, and obesity in particular, are fueling the market for diabetes products. AVOS predicts that the number of patients suffering from diabetes, including both diagnosed and undiagnosed cases, will grow from 22.9 million in 2008 to 25.6 million in 2013. Driven largely by an influx of newly released products (such as DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 analogs), and increased screening efforts, the diabetes market is expected to see more significant growth than many other mature therapeutic markets. AVOS projects that the U.S. market for anti-diabetes agents, including both insulin and oral antidiabetics/GLP-1s, will grow from $14.1 billion in 2008 to $20.3 billion in 2013.

AVOS Life Sciences' TMO Diabetes report addresses each key aspect of a rigorous, disease-based market analysis:

Market Size & Expected Growth	In-depth epidemiological analysis and modeling Detailed review of current and projected treatment landscape at a class level
Treatment Cascade	Consideration of the treatment algorithms for primary indication Impact of manipulating treatment cascade through promotional and other initiatives
Drug Class Characteristics	Fundamentals: safety, efficacy, side effects, onset of action, duration, etc. Developer strengths and weaknesses (technology, marketing, sales, etc.)
Competitive Landscape	Comprehensive competitve pipeline overview at a drug level In-depth review of all major competing treatment mechanisms and drug classes
Pricing & Reimbursement Landscape	Where appropriate, price elaticity calculations based on payer and provider interviews Evaluation of reimbursement landscape for indication and similar projects
Class Position Effects	Detailed research and analysis for first-in-class products Scenario analysis of entrants into markets with existing products
Projected Market Share Shifts	Sophisticated uptake models (historical view, firm and product attributes) Predictions for shifts resulting from the use of several marketing levers

Key findings in AVOS's TMO Diabetes report include:

• Single digit sector-wide unit volume growth: Sector-wide prescription volume growth remains modest, with a CAGR of 6.2% for the overall anti-diabetes market...
• Thiazolidinedione (TZD) class remains a key cornerstone to diabetes therapy despite Avandia setback: Suffering from the heart attack association, Avandia has lost more than half of its market share since May 2007. We predict...
• DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1s are the new growth drivers: Benign side effects and robust pipelines will drive DPP-IV inhibitors to be the leading class of oral agents after TZDs. With better market familiarity and the availability of long-term safety data, physicians will...
• GLP-1s will compete with insulins for new patients: Byetta's weight loss function and potential β-cell protection benefit are highly valued in diabetes management, and its efficacy appears to be close to that of insulin starter regimens. Currently, many physicians use Byetta...
• Generics will dominate the oral antidiabetics (OAD) market: So far, no second-line oral agent is more effective than metformin for lowering Hb1Ac. Sulfonylureas, the second-largest generic OAD class, are projected to lose two-thirds...

Building on a variety of qualitative and quantitative sources, AVOS's TMO Diabetes report presents a rich and nuanced picture of a mature but dynamic therapeutic market.